English translation of the Hebrew original.
It feels as though media coverage has muddled the attack on Air Control Unit 506. I’ll try to briefly clarify what I understand so far.
First, we should distinguish between the statistical, high-trajectory fire directed at the base (“dumb” weapons) and the video showing the hit on the dome.
It needs to be stated explicitly: unguided rocket fire cannot directly target an object like this. Its dispersion is simply too large; that is not what it is designed to do.
Israel’s air-defense systems also deal fairly well with most high-trajectory rocket fire. (Of course, sufficient quantities of munitions can saturate the systems, but we’ll leave that for another time.)
According to Lebanese media, and judging by the published video, the dome was hit not by rocket fire but by direct fire from an advanced Kornet (EM), with a range of 8–10 kilometers.
This is a very advanced Russian weapon. Hezbollah probably possesses only small quantities and would use it against high-value targets within that range.
Air-defense systems cannot provide an answer to direct fire, so we should not expect them to do so.
What can be done?
Because of the nature of this fire, the operator must see the target to engage it.
A topographical analysis of visible areas within that range is needed to determine which strategic sites are exposed to the threat.
Because objects such as the dome are stationary, they can be protected by passive measures such as screening or concealment.
Such sites can probably also be protected by active systems specifically designed for anti-tank fire, similar to Trophy.
To conclude, this is by no means a positive event for the IDF. It requires a different approach to the anti-tank threat from the northern border.
Nevertheless, I believe and hope that this is a “one-trick pony” that, now exposed, will be less effective against similar targets.
As always, I would be glad to hear your insights or comments in the replies.
Images and video attached to the original publication: Media 1 · Media 2 · Media 3 · Media 4 · Media 5 · Media 6 · Media 7