English translation of the Hebrew original.
Now that the smoke has cleared a little and the children are sleeping peacefully in their beds, I have time to put down a few retrospective thoughts about the historic event we experienced yesterday.
1. The multilayer defense
Yesterday, as I sat in front of the screen watching the interceptions, I had tears in my eyes. That is not a metaphor.
From conversations with a few acquaintances, it seems the public does not grasp the event’s historic scale. Perhaps that is because we grew up in a reality with Iron Dome, but this was an entirely different event.
The story begins in the 1990s, with the start of development of Arrow 1 and 2. Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow 3 and 4, and Iron Beam came later.
Unlike Iron Dome, which has had thousands of operational opportunities to learn and improve since 2011, the first time Arrow 2 and 3 faced a real operational challenge was during the current war.
That amounted to each of them intercepting a single missile. That was all.
To convey what this means, imagine someone practicing basketball alone for 30 years. The first time he steps onto a court is for a one-on-one game against Michael Jordan — and he wins, 100–0. That is what happened here.
2. The Iranian response
When I tried to assess what the Iranian response would be, I assumed the Iranians wanted to avoid escalation at any cost and therefore would not launch their response from their own territory.
I was wrong.
Iran saw the killing carried out at the embassy as an infringement of Iranian sovereignty. Its response therefore came directly from Iran itself.
Iran’s assessment was probably that Israel, and especially the United States, would try to avoid regional escalation at any cost, as long as Iran did not break the rules entirely.
Iran therefore made sure to inform the United States of the nature, targets and timing of the attack, allowing Israel to prepare, and used only precision munitions to minimize civilian casualties.
It also made sure to inform countries in the region that the attack was being carried out under Article 51 of the UN Charter (self-defense). It timed a closing statement for immediately after the event, seeking to keep the episode “closed” from beginning to end, with no potential for escalation.
An important point: I have read various Twitter blowhards claiming that Iran was not really trying to hit anything.
Iran was trying to hit. With everything it had.
It sent enormous quantities of precision weapons to try to overwhelm Israel’s defenses, and failed spectacularly.
The people of Israel live. Kiss our ass. Moving on.
3. The United States
As I have written several times, over the past two years Biden has been trying to avoid regional escalation at any cost. That effort is costing all of us dearly.
The extraordinary effort to help Israel intercept the attack was, among other things — and perhaps primarily — intended to prevent Israeli casualties that would justify a counterattack leading to escalation.
We should remember:
- Biden’s overriding interest is to survive another election.
- America’s overriding interest is its struggle with China.
- Israel’s overriding interest is an Iran without nuclear weapons.
Unfortunately, these interests do not necessarily align. This is where the discussion of Israel’s response comes in.
An Israeli tactical response without a policy is negligible to the point of meaninglessness, so there is little point discussing it.
The time left before nuclear breakout is probably short. Very short.
Israel needs to use the opportunity that has emerged to rally public opinion in the United States and the West behind massive economic and military pressure on Iran.
We are not alone in this.
The reason Jordan and Saudi Arabia actively participated in the interception effort rather than staying behind the scenes is that they know a nuclear Iran threatens them too.
Our ability to bring other countries into this effort is critical to its success. Deepening this regional cooperation is therefore important.
It needs to be said:
Ultimately, Iran is first and foremost the Middle East’s problem.
Not America’s, not the West’s — and everyone in the neighborhood knows it. Especially after Ukraine.
That is why everyone is now looking to one country: Israel.
Unlike the United States, Israel is seen by countries in the region as fully committed to solving the Iranian problem.
It is time to internalize that and begin to lead the coalition toward the major campaign that will probably arrive soon.
Because, as Golda once told Biden, we simply have “nowhere else to go.”
End.
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