English translation of the Hebrew original.
While you were asleep — or at least while I was — Hezbollah published footage of a strike on a military base near Rosh Hanikra.
This is a highly unusual video because it demonstrates advanced anti-tank capabilities in Hezbollah’s possession.
Unlike previous incidents, this is not an anti-tank missile fired directly at its target, like the Kornet. It follows a ballistic trajectory.
Hezbollah makes a point of emphasizing this in the video by showing the height of the wall surrounding the base, which the missile clears.
It is also a precision anti-tank missile that “sees” its target and can correct its course during flight (“fire and forget” / “fire, observe and update”). These advanced capabilities are reminiscent of Israel’s well-known Spike missile.
As I saw @Tamir114 write earlier, it is not unreasonable to think this is an Iranian Almas anti-tank missile: a copy of Israel’s Spike that Iran claims it managed to develop as early as 2017.
According to that claim, it was produced by reverse-engineering an Israeli Spike that fell in Syria without exploding, and has a range of eight kilometers.
About four months ago, Iran announced that it had developed the Almas-3, supposedly a more advanced generation comparable to the Spike ER, with a range of up to ten kilometers.
According to the IDF’s account, this is old footage and the base was not damaged. It is not unreasonable that the warhead failed to detonate or caused no damage.
Even so, it is worth asking why Hezbollah would use advanced weaponry — perhaps even something the IDF did not yet know about, which could have been a significant battlefield surprise — to cause relatively limited damage.
In my view, Nasrallah currently wants to avoid an all-out conflict. This confrontation was forced on him, and he would prefer to face Israel later.
At the same time, Nasrallah senses a real possibility that Israel will launch a war in the north. Much of that comes from northern residents who will not return until the threat has been removed. He is therefore trying to frighten us by revealing advanced weapons,
so that we conclude it is “not worth messing with him.”
Of course, this is speculation, and it should be treated as such.
Nevertheless, I believe it is a positive signal: when is a better time to strike your enemy than precisely when he is shouting that he does not want a confrontation?
To be continued.
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Images and video attached to the original publication: Media 1 · Media 2 · Media 3 · Media 4 · Media 5 · Media 6 · Media 7