Building an Antifragile Israel

In this conversation with Barak Herscowitz, Omer questions Israel’s dependence on intelligence forecasts. The starting point is that some developments cannot be predicted, so a security doctrine must also be judged by how it handles surprises.

Antifragility, inspired by Nassim Taleb, provides a framework for discussing principles of action under uncertainty. The conversation also covers lessons from October 7, assessments of the Hezbollah threat and the challenge of turning ideas into changes in public policy.